Glacier development and topographic context     

J. I. Lpez‐Moreno  D. Nogus‐Bravo  J. Chueca‐Cía  A. Julin‐Andrs 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(12):1585-1594

This paper analyses the topographic context of the remaining glaciated areas in the Maladeta Massif (Central Spanish Pyrenees). These ice‐covered surfaces have been incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS) in an attempt at correlating the presence of ice with a range of topographic variables obtained from a digital elevation model. The use of generalized additive models and binary regression tree models enabled us (i) to quantify the spatial variability in the distribution of glaciers attributable to characteristics of the local terrain, (ii) to investigate the interaction between the variables that account for the ice cover distribution and (iii) to map the probability of glacier development. Our results show that although the development of glaciers depends on regional climate conditions, the topographic context is of paramount importance in determining the location, extent, shape and recent evolution of each glacial body. Thus, the joint effect of altitude, exposure to incoming solar radiation, slope and mean curvature is able to explain more than 70 per cent of the observed variance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

林冠慧  张长义 《地球科学进展》2006,21(2):201-210

自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。  相似文献   

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

Suzanne Belliveau  Barry Smit  Ben Bradshaw 《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(4):364-378

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.  相似文献   

Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram   总被引：29，自引：1，他引：29  

Colin Polsky  Rob Neff  Brent Yarnal 《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):472-485

Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments.  相似文献   

Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

Coleen Vogel  Susanne C. Moser  Roger E. Kasperson  Geoffrey D. Dabelko 《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):349-364

Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions. As scientists and practitioners increasingly work together in this arena a number of questions are emerging: What is credible, salient and legitimate knowledge, how is this knowledge generated and how is it used in decision making? Drawing on important science in this field, and including a case study from southern Africa, we suggest an alternative mode of interaction to the usual one-way interaction between science and practice often used. In this alternative approach, different experts, risk-bearers, and local communities are involved and knowledge and practice is contested, co-produced and reflected upon. Despite some successes in the use and negotiation of such knowledge for ‘real’ world issues, a number of problems persist that require further investigation including the difficulties of developing consensus on the methodologies used by a range of stakeholders usually across a wide region (as the case study of southern Africa shows, particularly in determining and identifying vulnerable groups, sectors, and systems); slow delivery of products that could enhance resilience to change that reflects not only a lack of data, and need for scientific credibility, but also the time-consuming process of coming to a negotiated understanding in science–practice interactions and, finally, the need to clarify the role of ‘external’ agencies, stakeholders, and scientists at the outset of the dialogue process and subsequent interactions. Such factors, we argue, all hinder the use of vulnerability and resilience ‘knowledge’ that is being generated and will require much more detailed investigation by both producers and users of such knowledge.  相似文献   

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

金江军  潘懋  徐岳仁 《地震工程学报》2007,29(2):109-113

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。  相似文献   

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究     

金江军  潘懋  徐岳仁 《内陆地震》2007,21(2):135-141

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.  相似文献   

Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

José Fernando Aceves-Quesada  Jesús Díaz-Salgado  Jorge López-Blanco 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):339-356

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.  相似文献   

关联演化视角下地理学区域韧性分析的新思考   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

李艳  陈雯  孙阳 《地理研究》2019,38(7):1694-1704

区域韧性是一个区域应对发展进程中短期冲击与长期变化、积极进行自我调适与转型的能力,表征了区域的适应性、创新性与可持续性,作为新兴理念反映了地理学可持续发展与区域研究的新需求。本研究综述了区域韧性研究进展,基于关联演化视角,探索构建区域韧性认知框架,将情境分析与过程分析并重,思考并总结区域韧性分析的方法论,尝试建立区域韧性评估方程,从经济、社会、环境及制度四个维度进行区域韧性评估,将区域韧性应用于中国地理学研究,分析中国区域韧性研究的一般性与特殊性,将区域韧性研究对接中国实际问题,以期对区域韧性研究做出理论贡献,助推地理学区域发展研究及相关认知领域的跨学科讨论、知识集成与学术交流,为国家制定相关区域政策提供参考,并为国家及区域可持续发展提供科学指引。  相似文献   

Evaluating the fitness for use of spatial data sets to promote quality in ecological assessment and monitoring     

Isabel Pôças  João Gonçalves  Bruno Marcos  Joaquim Alonso  Pedro Castro  João P. Honrado 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(11):2356-2371

This article proposes and illustrates a practical methodological framework to evaluate the fitness for use of spatial data sets for environmental and ecological applications, focusing on user requirements for specified application contexts. The methodology is based on the use of metadata to analyze similarity between the data characteristics and the user’s needs or expectations for several quality indicators. Additionally, the concept of ‘critical factors’ is introduced in this framework, allowing users to define which quality indicators have greater importance given their own requirements or expectations and the specified application contexts. The proposed methodology further allows integrating and interconnecting the spatial data quality (SDQ) evaluation methodology with metadata geoportals in WebGIS platforms, facilitating its operation by users from non-spatial disciplines and with often limited expertise on this subject. Examples of the evaluation of fitness for use for specific application contexts within the project BIO_SOS (‘Biodiversity Multi-SOurce Monitoring System: From Space To Species’ FP7 project) are presented. By providing a prompt and straightforward evaluation tool, the proposed methodology can encourage the implementation of SDQ evaluation routines in ecological assessment and monitoring programs, promoting a more adequate use of geospatial data and ultimately contributing to well-supported policy and management decisions.  相似文献